Four in 10 trustees and pension professionals expect around a fifth of today’s defined benefit (DB) pension schemes to buyout within the next five years, according to research from Aptia.

The survey, conducted among up to 78 trustees and pensions professionals at Aptia’s annual showcase event, found that 40 per cent believe 20 per cent of the UK’s roughly 5,000 DB schemes will buyout over the next five years.

A further 35 per cent said they expect 30 per cent of schemes to buyout in that timeframe, while 17 per cent predicted that 10 per cent or fewer schemes would do so.

Just 1 per cent thought the proportion would exceed 50 per cent.

The findings come after The Pensions Regulator’s (TPR) latest Annual Funding Statement revealed that 60 per cent of DB schemes were in surplus on a buyout basis as at 31 December 2025, with the regulator expecting trustees to shift focus from deficit recovery to endgame planning.

When asked about the most important factor in selecting the “right endgame” for schemes, 31 per cent of respondents cited data quality.

Sponsor objectives were identified by 23 per cent, while 20 per cent pointed to covenant considerations.

Member understanding was selected by 10 per cent of respondents, ahead of running costs (9 per cent) and market volatility (7 per cent).

The survey also found that controlling the cost of advice is the top priority project for trustees over the next 12 months, cited by 34 per cent of respondents.

This was followed by advice on administration (29 per cent) and member engagement (18 per cent).

Aptia consulting leader, Stuart Heatley, said the findings showed trustees were taking a “more measured and realistic approach” to endgame planning.

“These findings underline that while buyout remains an important end-game option, trustees are taking a more measured and realistic approach,” he stated.

“It’s good to see that most trustees recognise that the journey to an end-game solution is just as critical as the destination, where data quality and sponsor alignment are fundamental to delivering good member outcomes in the long term.”

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