More than a quarter of girls and almost a fifth of boys born in the UK in 2049 are expected to live to at least 100 years old, according to the latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) projections, raising further questions over the long-term sustainability of retirement provision.

The ONS’ latest Past and projected period and cohort life tables showed that 26.3 per cent of girls and 18.3 per cent of boys born in 2049 are projected to live to at least 100 years of age, up from 19.1 per cent and 12 per cent respectively for those born in 2024.

The data also showed that the cohort life expectancy at birth in the UK is projected to rise to 92.4 years for girls and 89.6 years for boys born in 2049, an increase of 2.2 years and 2.6 years, respectively, compared with those born in 2024.

In addition, females aged 65 in 2024 are expected to live an average of 22.7 more years, while males are expected to live another 20 years.

By 2049, this is projected to increase to 24.6 years for women and 22 years for men.

The figures come amid ongoing debate around post-pandemic mortality trends and their implications for pension scheme liabilities.

Earlier this year, the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) published its updated mortality projections model, which showed higher life expectancies for both men and women across most age cohorts, with life expectancy at age 65 around 0.6 per cent higher than under the previous model.

WTW said the updated model could increase defined benefit (DB) pension scheme liabilities by around 0.5 per cent for schemes adopting it, while LCP noted that the latest data reflected mortality rates in 2025 that were the lowest on record overall for England and Wales.

However, separate analysis from Aon previously found that projected life expectancy for a typical UK pensioner remained below pre-pandemic expectations, with life expectancy for a 65-year-old man falling by around nine months and by seven months for a woman compared with pre-COVID mortality models.

Aon estimated that this reduction equated to around a 2 per cent fall in liabilities for a typical pension scheme.

Broadstone head of policy, David Brooks, said the latest ONS figures highlighted a “significant demographic challenge” for the UK that would place growing pressure on public finances and policymakers.

“As life expectancy continues to rise, the UK faces a significant demographic challenge that will place increasing pressure on public finances and wider policymaking,” he stated.

“People will spend longer in retirement, often needing to draw an income for decades, requiring both larger later-life savings and inevitably increasing the cost for the State of providing retirement benefits.”

He cautioned that increasing longevity heightens the risk that individuals underestimate how much they will need in retirement and run out of money later in life.

Echoing this, Hargreaves Lansdown head of retirement analysis, Helen Morrissey, said the figures showed the importance of retirement planning as people increasingly spend decades in retirement.

“When asked to estimate how long we are going to live, many of us look at our parents and grandparents as a guide. The reality is we could live significantly longer,”

“Taking small steps, such as boosting your contribution every time you get a pay increase or promotion, can make a big difference, and you should also make the most of any employer contribution too.”

Meanwhile, Brooks warned that the findings raised “difficult questions” for policymakers, employers and the pensions industry about how retirement can be funded sustainably over the long term.

He pointed to the ongoing state pension age review being led by Dr Suzy Morrissey on behalf of the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP), which is gathering evidence on whether planned increases to the state pension age should be accelerated.

Morrisey also noted that "as more of us live longer, the government will look at different ways to manage the burgeoning bill, and they could choose to bring the shift to age 68 forward, or even put in place a timetable to age 69 and beyond.”

In addition, Brooks argued that an ageing population, combined with lower birth rates, could leave a proportionally smaller share of working-age people supporting those in retirement.

“This risks placing a greater tax burden on younger generations while stretching healthcare, social care and pension systems further,” he added.

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