The size of a scheme is the "key factor" for defined benefit (DB) pension schemes choosing an endgame, according to Aon's 2025 endgame survey.

The annual survey, which covered over 200 schemes, mainly in the private sector, found that 23 per cent of schemes were still considering their endgame, with "significant" differences in their preferred method.

The next most important factors after scheme size were the industry sector and the geographical region of the sponsor's parent company.

Of the schemes that had agreed on their preferred endgame, 71 per cent planned to move to an insurance solution as soon as possible. This included some that need to run on for a short period to be settlement-ready.

Among smaller (sub-£100m) schemes, this figure rose to 88 per cent.

Meanwhile, 28 per cent of respondents who had reached a view on their endgame were planning a longer-term run-on, in some cases for a few years and in others indefinitely—up from 17 per cent in the 2024 survey.

62 per cent of schemes over £1bn sought to run beyond the point needed to be settlement-ready, either temporarily or indefinitely, up from 25 per cent in 2024.

Aon UK endgame strategy team partner, James Patten, noted a "marked shift" in the proportion of teams looking to run-on.

"It may be that the government's announcement earlier this year, which suggested more flexibility around the use of surplus and a better understanding of the risk/return trade-off of different options, has influenced schemes.

“Of course, many schemes planning to run-on will ultimately insure the scheme. This is supported by the data, which shows that approximately half the schemes planning to run on are expecting to do so for a period of time before a future buy out. It is, therefore, more of a matter of when rather than if this happens,” he suggested.

However, Patten highlighted that buying out at the earliest opportunity, either once affordable or settlement-ready, continued to be the most sought-after endgame when considering schemes as a whole and was "by far" the most popular endgame for schemes below £500m in size.

"The entry of four new insurers has changed the competitive landscape and opened up more options," he continued.

"Smaller schemes may now find they have a greater choice if they buy in, potentially making insurance more attractive. At the other end of the spectrum, insurers are clear that there is capacity in the market for even the largest schemes," he added.

Patten also drew attention to other factors influencing schemes' decision to buy out or run- on.

"It is also striking how the business sector of the sponsoring employer can influence views. Insuring a scheme is more prevalent in construction, engineering, hospitality and travel areas.

"Longer-term run-on appears to be more popular in the financial services and energy sectors where there is often a stronger covenant supporting the scheme and potentially improving the viability of a run-on," he explained.

"The geographical region of the scheme sponsor's parent company also appears to affect views. In particular, North American-headquartered employers show more appetite for run-on than those with headquarters elsewhere. Among other factors, differences in accounting standards may influence the position here," Patten concluded.

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