The state pension triple lock is unsustainable, unpredictable, and intergenerationally unfair, and reform could save around £19bn a year by 2035/36 while still protecting the poorest pensioners through targeted support, a report by the Intergenerational Foundation (IF) has argued.

The report, Time to Unlock: Why it’s time to reform the triple lock on the state pension, argued the triple lock has become a major driver of higher and more volatile public spending, while increasingly shifting resources from younger, less affluent workers to older, wealthier pensioners.

In 2025/26, the state pension was expected to cost around £146bn, or around 5 per cent of GDP, up from £86bn in 2005/06.

IF senior researcher and author of the report, Conor Nakkan, commented: “The triple lock may have been introduced with good intentions, but it has become an expensive and poorly targeted policy.

“It now delivers large increases to all pensioners, including millions who are already well off, while younger generations face stagnant living standards, high housing costs and a growing tax burden.”

The report explained there were several ways to reform the triple lock, with IF's preferred approach would be capping state pension increases at inflation until 2030/31 and then increase by the average of inflation and earnings after that.

This would reduce the volatility associated with the triple lock while still preserving a link between pension increases and broader improvements in living standards, the think tank argued.

IF calculated the reform could save around £19bn a year by 2035-36, rising to £38bn a year by 2045/46.

Nakkan said the report demonstrated how the triple lock can be reformed, while saving taxpayers 10s of billions of pounds, and still do more to protect poorer pensioners.

“The current system is not only fiscally unsustainable, it is also intergenerationally unfair,” he added.

The report also proposed redirecting some savings to poorer pensioners through a new Low-Income Pension Supplement for Pension Credit recipients, worth £30 a week (£1,560 a year) from 2026/27, the payment would be exempt from means testing and rise in line with the state pension.

By the mid-2030s, the supplement would cost only around 10 per cent of the savings generated by the reforms.

“If the government wants to protect pensioners from hardship, it should do so directly," Nakkan continued.

"A new Low-Income Pension Supplement would provide a meaningful boost to those pensioners who need support the most, without continuing to hand large increases to everyone else.”

Debate over the state pension triple lock continues across the industry, with the Tony Blair Institute recently proposing its own reforms.

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