An escalation in conflicts between superpowers is considered the greatest risk to the global economy over the next five years, according to a poll of PLSA Annual Conference attendees.

A third of respondents (33 per cent) voted that increased conflict between the major superpowers will be the greatest risk, followed by central banks running out of policy space at 16 per cent, the reversal of globalisation, and the depletion of the environment and global warming, both at 14 per cent, and populist governments winding back structural reforms at 11 per cent.

Commenting on the risk of superpower conflict, Aberdeen Standard Investments Research Institute chief economist and head of research, Jeremy Lawson, stated that trade wars are symptomatic “of deeper structural forces”.

“The trade wars itself is something that reflects the idea that we are moving away from a world where we can collectively solve problems to one where people are fighting over their share of the pie,” he explained.

“That is really what the trade conflict is about. It is not just about trade, it’s about technology, power and how it is allocated. For that reason it is definitely weighing on the global economy, pushing growth down.

“The idea that the United States and China are strategic competitors, in strategic conflict, is going to be with us for quite some time.”

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