ONS life expectancy figures lower than insurance company data

Life expectancy figures published by the Office for National Statistics are much lower than figures based on insurance company data, according to Just Retirement.

New figures published by the ONS expect a newborn baby boy could expect to live to 79.2 years and a newborn baby girl 82.9 years if mortality rates remain the same as they were in the UK in 2013 to 2015 throughout their lives.

These rates are higher than for the period 2009 to 2011, but the ONS said the proportion of life spent in good health is falling, due to the improvement in life expectancy exceeding that of healthy life expectancy. Females continue to have a higher number of years in good health than males, despite this males live a higher proportion of their lives in good health and disability-free.

The highest life expectancy at birth for males is 83.4 years in Kensington and Chelsea, the lowest is 73.4 years in Glasgow City. The highest estimate for females is 86.7 years in Hart (South East of England); the lowest is 78.7 in West Dunbartonshire.

However, Just Retirement group communications director Stephen Lowe has said these figures “underestimate how long most people will live” and therefore people should be cautious when it comes to financial planning.

“The big picture is that improvements in life expectancy across the population are continuing which is good news although inevitably it has consequences for how people plan their lives and finances to cope with the extra years,” he said.

“However, at an individual level people should be cautious about reading anything into these figures for financial planning purposes because they underestimate how long most people will live. This is very important at a time when many more retirees are choosing drawdown options rather than choosing guaranteed income for life which insures them against outliving their assets.”

He explained that one reason for the underestimation is that the ONS figures don’t take account of future mortality improvements which have been running at the rate of around three extra years of life for every decade.

“Life expectancy averages covered in the news have to be treated carefully because the simple (mean) average age of death is several years before the median (half die before, half after) average which itself is before the mode (most likely) age at death.

“The ONS puts life expectancy for a 65 year old man at 18.7 years and for a woman 21.1 years, whereas figures based on insurance company data are more like 25 years life expectancy for a 65 year old man in average health and 28 years for a woman with another three years on top of that for men and women in good health” Lowe said.

“Financial planners dealing with individuals need to take into account additional factors such as wealth and health of the client when thinking about life expectancy, using a range of possible outcomes rather than fixating on a single figure.”

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