There will be “no negotiations of substance” on Britain leaving the European Union until October, according to political journalist Andrew Neil.

Speaking at Barnett Waddingham’s Today’s Trustee: Under the microscope conference in London yesterday, 28 March, Neil explained that the “political backdrop in Europe is uncertain” and it will be difficult to get a consistent and coherent line of agreement with the remaining 27 member states during the negotiations.

There are upcoming elections in the Netherlands, France, Germany and possibly Italy, which could see the election of far-right leaders. He noted that it will be difficult to know what the EU’s line of negotiations will be as the Council does not meet until the end of April and then the EU elections begin.

“It could be the end of October before negotiations really begin...and by negotiations, I mean negotiations of substance.” However, he said when the talks do begin it will be in a more “cordial atmosphere” than initially thought but the issue of the Brexit bill could be an “early deal breaker”.

He also said that a deal on the rights to allow EU citizens to remain in Britain and British citizens to remain in the EU would be reached quickly.

Commenting on why forecasters got their post-Brexit forecast wrong, he said they underestimated the willingness of the British consumer to spend.

“The Bank of England, the Treasury, city forecasters, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank all assumed that the British consumer would be so traumatised by the effect of voting for Brexit that they would tighten their belts, cut spending, and save more – that the savings ratio would rise.”

Instead, he noted that the British people carried on spending as they did not share the same fears and the savings ratio actually fell. However, he said the consumer cannot keep the economy going forever and exports will come in to contribute more to the economy.

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