The Actuarial Profession has published a prototype model to project future mortality rates for consultation.

The body's Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) unit has launched the prototype due to its concerns about the 'widespread' use of the Interim Cohort Projections, which it claims have become out-of-date.

The CMI said currently used projections do not take experience data published after 1999 into account.

Their new model instead reflects the latest experience on mortality trends, and is - the CMI claims - relatively straightforward to understand and describe. Users can modify projections to suit their own views and purpose, and can be updated regularly to reflect emerging trends.

The new Model has been welcomed by the industry, with Nick Flint, chief executive at longevity comparison club, Club Vita, greeting the move away from cohort projection models. "Our research has shown that mortality trends in occupational pension schemes over the past 15 years have differed significantly from assumptions derived from cohort projection.

"It's not surprising that pension schemes have found the cohort projections wanting; they relied on data from insurance companies, whereas the most relevant information has to be that derived from pension schemes. Scheme should ensure that the projection models they use make use of the most appropriate data sets - those based on occupational pension schemes."

He added that longevity is a risk management issue, and as such trustees must recognise that new trends and evidence will emerge over time. "Moreover, the experience of a particular scheme may be specific to that scheme. Longevity should be addressed as a risk management issue as part of schemes' annual governance cycle. It should not just be seen as a funding problem to be measured every three years," Flint concluded.

- Pensions Age June 2009

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