Industry reacts with ‘a short intake of breath, followed by a shrug’ to Trump’s triumph

Donald Trump’s presidential victory this morning has brought with it a somewhat stunted reaction by global markets.

Discussing the initial stock market reaction to the Trump victory, there was a “short intake of breath, followed by a shrug,” Hargreaves Lansdown senior analyst Laith Khalaf has said.

While the FTSE 100 opened down by between two to three per cent this morning, the market is not reacting as hastily as expected. Khalaf continued: “The FTSE 100 was included in the early morning sell-off, but the reaction of the UK stock market was much more muted than in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote. The market opened 2 per cent down, but has since staged a recovery to trade a little under yesterday’s closing price, with the FTSE 250 actually bouncing back into positive territory.”

As uncertainty generally decreases after an election, it appears that Trump’s election has brought with it greater uncertainty.

Discussing the probability of dramatic and unforeseen changes, Legal & General Investment Management global equity strategist Lars Kreckel said: “the possibility of unexpected announcements, sudden policy changes and ill-advised comments is likely to be a feature for some time to come.”

Moreover, in addition to vulnerable currencies, with the dollar falling against the pound and the yen and the plummeting of the Mexican peso, emerging markets and related assets are also particularly vulnerable.

The unexpected election result has meant “the initial market response result has been stark, with global equity markets moving sharply lower, bond yields receding and the Mexican peso weakening,” explained Kreckel.

Furthermore, industry experts have predicted that the result may lead to greater inflation.

“While an initial risk-off reaction has pushed bond yields down, it strikes us that many of Trump’s policies could ultimately be inflationary.Protectionist policies could drive up import prices, anti-immigration policies could boost domestic wages and significant fiscal stimulus could add further to inflationary pressures,” Kreckel added.

Pioneer head of global asset allocation research Monica Defend agreed: "The US election outcome may lead to increased interest rate volatility which may weigh on EM currencies, while a strong shift to protectionism may also hurt many export-oriented EM companies, not only in Mexico."

“The increased uncertainty means that the Federal Reserve is likely to delay its plans to increase interest rates so the ‘bad news is good news’ theme in markets may play out again,” Ben Wattam investment manager Mattiolo Woods said.

Responding to these market predictions, SYZ Asset Management chief investment officer Fabrizio Quirighetti noted: “The immediate reaction now is to sell risk, especially EM assets, and buy safe-haven assets.”

Nonetheless, it has been suggested that the market’s downturn in response to the presidential election is not all bad news. Some industry professionals have indicated that there is financial opportunity in the coming period of volatility and uncertainty.

DeVere Group CEO Nigel Green said that while we should “buckle up for a bumpy ride in the global markets,” investors should welcome the market volatility.

“Whilst some people are put-off investing because of volatility, many of the most successful investors welcome it. This is because major buying opportunities are always found where there are fluctuations,” Green added, as “it means greater potential returns.”

“A professional fund manager will help investors take advantage of the opportunities that volatility brings and mitigate potential risks as and when they are presented.”

Neuberger Berman president and chief investment officer, equities Joe Amato and chief investment officer, multi-asset class Erik Knutzen agreed, commenting: “we believe the Brexit playbook is useful here. Market volatility may endure for a little longer, but as it does so, it could deliver buying opportunities.”

Barings head of Asian equities Hyunglin Lee added: “If short-term uncertainty creates a risk-off environment for traditional risk-assets, such as emerging market equities, there could be opportunities to accumulate long-term, fundamentally strong names at lower prices.”

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