Increased state pension could cost SNP £60bn over next 50 years

Increasing the state pension in Scotland could cost the Scottish National Party an additional £60bn over the next 50 years.

According to Herald Scotland, the SNP may have to reduce pension promises made in its 2014 independence manifesto if it holds a second referendum, as the cost of providing an increased state pension is likely to cost an additional £60bn over the next 50 years.

In the build up to the 2014 referendum, the SNP stated that pensioners in an independent Scotland would receive a weekly state pension payment of £160 from April 2016. This would be almost three per cent higher than the £155.65 paid by the Westminster government at that time.

Furthermore, London and Edinburgh’s agreement to increase the state pension by at least 2.5 per cent annually would then mean the £160 would have to increase to £176.60 by 2020 if Scottish citizens are promised the same deal as part of a second referendum campaign. This is compared to a payment of £171.81 by 2020 in the rest of the UK. The total cost of providing this increase would by around £8.9bn in the first year and would rise considerably over time.

JLT Employee Benefits Scotland chairman Malcolm Paul told the paper that to keep its state pension promise the SNP would have to make significant cuts in other areas.

“A gap of £4 costs about £1bn per annum in the long term,” he said. “It’s sneaky because it builds up and with an ageing population it will increase quite rapidly. Even a small monetary addition adds up in the long term to a significant pot of money. The question is how will that be funded? What will they not spend it on to be able to spend that extra £1bn?” he said.

Political economist John McLaren noted that in order to make increased pension payments fiscally neutral, the SNP would have to look at raising the state pension age quicker, which is something it is against.

“Scotland’s population is ageing faster than the UK’s, which would push the [Scottish] government towards raising the pension age more quickly in Scotland than in the UK to make up for the greater percentage of non-working population,” McLaren said.

While agreeing in its 2014 manifesto to raise the state pension age to 66, the SNP said that “the Westminster government’s plan for a rapid move to 67 is a concern”. This is due to the fact that life expectancy in some of Scotland’s poorest parts is as low as 67.5. Although not increasing the age will protect the vulnerable, it will put an increased strain on the working population.

It was noted by Hymans Robertson head of longevity innovation and research Steven Baxter that for every person receiving the state pension in Scotland, there are three working age people paying taxes to fund that pension.

Paul added: “This whole thing about not increasing the state pension age because we don’t live as long as people in the rest of the UK is not treating the fundamental problem – it’s treating the symptoms rather than treating the ailments.”

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