Only two per cent of defined benefit (DB) private sector pension schemes will be open in 2019, estimates Xafinity.

Basing its prediction on a study conducted by the Cass Business School in 2009, the pensions company also forecasted that there would only be 0.6 million active members in a DB scheme by the end of the 2019.

Speaking at a seminar on pension scheme data quality on 4 February, Pat Wynne, director at Xafinity Consulting, said: "It is frightening to think there will be only half a million or so DB members in a decade."

Wynne added that 2010/11 looks "promising" for enhanced transfer value (ETV) exercises, with equity markets going up, inflation and interest rates expected to rise sharply towards the end of this year - which are good conditions for firms to get rid of their DB liabilities.

But Wynne said for these exercises to be successfully carried out, data must be in good order.

Bob Jackson, policy team at the Pensions Regulator (TPR), reiterated the need for quality data, and outlined the regulator's requirements, warning that while the measurement of scheme records is vital, "the [regulator's] framework that we have put together is meant to be a temperature check, not a cure all".

Jackson said TPR found in surveys that only 14 per cent of schemes participating have tested their common and conditional records, and 53 per cent score less than 90 per cent on common data alone. "More worryingly is the range of results, with seven per cent scoring zero on common data."

He added that the regulator is targeting a 100 per cent result on common data for records from 2010, and 95 per cent on legacy data for new records. Jackson said conditional data targets will be scheme specific

"Having been talking about this for the last year to 18 months, we feel that the industry should know about this stuff, and we are going to be talking to employers going forward. Therefore, there will be no reason why these targets should not be achieved," he concluded.

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